V–, U–, L– or W–shaped economic recovery after Covid-19: Insights from an Agent Based Model
نویسندگان
چکیده
We discuss the impact of a Covid-19--like shock on simple model economy, described by previously developed Mark-0 Agent-Based Model. consider mixed supply and demand shock, show that depending parameters (amplitude duration), our economy can display V-shaped, U-shaped or W-shaped recoveries, even an L-shaped output curve with permanent loss. This is due to getting trapped in self-sustained "bad" state. then two policies attempt moderate shock: giving easy credit firms, so-called helicopter money, i.e. injecting new money into households savings. find both are effective if strong enough. highlight potential danger terminating these too early, although inflation substantially increased lax access credit. Finally, we second lockdown. While only limited number scenarios, flexible versatile enough accommodate wide variety situations, thus serving as useful exploratory tool for qualitative, scenario-based understanding post-Covid recovery. The corresponding code available on-line.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: PLOS ONE
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1932-6203']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0247823